NRF will release its 2025 holiday sales forecast on Thursday, Nov. 6.
For more information or to RSVP for the press call, contact press@nrf.com.
Given the impact of tariffs and other variables in play this year NRF will announce its holiday forecast later than usual to allow time to see more economic data and provide a more precise forecast. NRF has forecast full-year retail sales to grow between 2.7% and 3.7% in 2025. Throughout this year, retail sales have remained robust, and consumers continue to spend. We expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories — particularly in the services sector — in order to be able to spend on essential goods categories including gifts for loved ones, this holiday season.
In terms of retail spending, the winter holidays include the months of November and December and cover major consumer shopping events such as Thanksgiving, Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa. However, in recent years more consumers have started to check items off their lists early, and retailers have responded to demand by offering earlier holiday deals and sales events.
Overall, holiday sales in November and December have averaged about 19% of total retail sales over the last five years, but the figure can be higher for some retailers. In addition, holiday sales can be more profitable because the increased volume of purchases comes without significantly increasing retailers’ fixed costs of doing business.
Retail sales as defined by NRF include store-based, online and other non-store purchases (direct-to-consumer, kiosks, catalog, etc.) in a broad range of retail categories including discount stores, department stores, grocers and specialty stores, but exclude purchases at automotive dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.
Retail sales figures are calculated by NRF based on data reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. NRF tallies retail sales — excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 to determine holiday sales. Sales during these months include traditional holiday purchases as well as items not specifically for holiday celebrations. Separately, Prosper Insights & Analytics conducts surveys for NRF based on what consumers say they plan to spend specifically on holiday items such as gifts, decorations, food and other seasonal items.
For the last several years, approximately two out of every five holiday shoppers have started browsing and buying before November. The top reasons consumers begin their shopping ahead of time are to spread out their budget, avoid the stress of last-minute shopping and avoid crowds. Regardless of how early consumers start, most will wrap up in December and will still be purchasing their last gifts in the week leading up to Christmas Day on Dec. 25.
Retailers have met this consumer demand by stocking holiday merchandise earlier to ensure that they have inventory in place for the start of the season and by launching holiday sale events as early as October.
NRF forecasts retail sales based on “nominal” (not adjusted for inflation) data and does not forecast expected inflation rates. Calculating a “real” (adjusted for inflation) growth number is much more complicated than subtracting inflation from nominal retail sales growth. Each individual area of retail has different inflation levels associated with it. Cars and groceries have had very high inflation, for example, while home goods and apparel inflation has been lower.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday are part of the five-day shopping event that begins on Thanksgiving Day and continues through the following Monday. Typically, these five days represent some of the busiest shopping days of the year as consumers browse and buy online, in stores and, increasingly, on smartphones and other mobile devices. However, in recent years consumer behavior has shifted, with many consumers preferring to spread their shopping over the entire season.
Retailers have adapted to ensure that they are meeting consumers when and how they want to shop. Some retailers may choose to close on Thanksgiving Day while others spread out their “Black Friday” deals both in stores and online throughout the holiday season.
NRF is not officially affiliated with Small Business Saturday but supports any initiative to recognize the millions of small retailers and their contributions to the economy and their communities. An estimated 90% of all U.S. retail companies employ 100 people or fewer.
NRF defines shopping as browsing with the intent to purchase, whether online or in stores. Purchasing is the act of actually buying a product.
Some retailers make return policies more lenient during the holiday season, understanding that there can be a lag time between when a gift is purchased and received. However, many retailers have also begun to change their return policies to account for concerns around return fraud.
The vast majority of returns occur in January, after the winter holidays. In addition to returning items for a refund, many consumers use holiday returns as an opportunity to make an additional purchase or shop retailers’ post-holiday sales.
Learn more in NRF and Happy Returns’ 2025 Retail Returns Landscape report here.
Tariffs remain top of mind for most holiday shoppers, with 85% of consumers anticipating higher prices due to tariffs. Even with concerns around tariffs, consumers continue to prioritize gift giving and other core areas of holiday spend. Consumers plan to spend $890 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items, according to NRF’s annual consumer survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics. The amount is the second highest figure in the survey’s 23-year history and falls only 1.3% less than last year’s record of $902.
