Learn more about how consumers are spending and shopping this holiday season at NRF's Holiday Headquarters.
As the winter season approaches, families across the country are stepping into the holidays with renewed enthusiasm — and retailers are preparing for one of the most meaningful shopping periods of the year. In this episode of Retail Gets Real, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen breaks down the latest holiday data, uncovers shopping trends and shares the heartfelt traditions that define how Americans celebrate this time of year.
From spending forecasts and toy trends to the influence of technology and the enduring magic of in-store discovery, this episode offers insights into what consumers value most — and why the holidays remain essential to so many.
Retailers can expect another strong season, with November and December sales projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time. Cullen says spending could grow up to 3.7% over last year, fueled by consumers who view holiday celebrations as essential, not optional.
That essential mindset is reflected in consumer budgets: Shoppers plan to spend around $860 on average for gifts and seasonal items. And the tradition of Thanksgiving weekend shopping remains alive and well — nearly 190 million consumers plan to shop in stores and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year.
Despite headlines claiming retailers “force” earlier shopping, Cullen says that consumer behavior drives the calendar. While some people begin browsing in October, most holiday momentum still occurs in November. Shoppers continue to look forward to Black Friday–themed deals, Thanksgiving week promotions and the excitement of browsing in person.
From trending toys like Legos, Barbies, Nintendo products and Pokémon to emerging favorites such as KPop Demon Hunters, kids have strong opinions about their wish lists — and we hear directly from them. Electronics, creative toys and even robot gadgets rank high. Other gift ideas from kids include Squishmallows and iPads, plus the ultimate gift for adults: a hug.
As for adults, the classics abide:
Gift cards remain the top choice, with $29 billion expected to be spent
Clothing and accessories maintain steady popularity
Tech tools and small electronics continue to inspire gift-givers
Interestingly, consumers are returning to a familiar source of holiday inspiration: catalogs. While social media algorithms, online searches and even AI tools like ChatGPT play a role, catalogs and in-store browsing offer something unique — the ability to stumble upon the unexpected.
Bricks-and-mortar stores give shoppers the chance to be “truly surprised,” Cullen says, letting them discover gifts they didn’t know existed.
(00:00:00) Holiday kickoff and early shopping myths
How consumer behavior — not retailers — shapes early holiday shopping
What NRF data reveals about November momentum
Why Black Friday traditions remain as strong as ever
How families describe the meaning behind their celebrations
(00:07:38) What kids really want — and what toys are trending for 2025
The toys topping wish lists, from Squishmallows to robots
How nostalgia and new tech shape this year’s hottest gifts
Why some classics — Legos, Barbies, Hot Wheels — never fade
Where shoppers are finding inspiration for the perfect present
(00:11:35) Where holiday gift inspiration really comes from
How kids, parents and shoppers discover new gift ideas
Why catalogs and in-store browsing are making a comeback
How algorithms and AI shape (and influence) holiday shopping
The surprising value of “unexpected finds” during the season
(00:16:41) The songs, foods and flavors that define the holidays
Kids’ favorite holiday songs — from classics to unexpected picks
Why food traditions hold such emotional power this time of year
How families blend old favorites with new seasonal rituals
The surprising dishes and treats that shoppers can’t celebrate without
(00:19:58) The traditions that make the holidays meaningful
How families blend Christmas, Hanukkah and unique rituals
Why simple traditions — music, lights, pajamas — create lasting memories
How gift-opening customs vary from home to home
What kids think adults really want for the holidays
Get ready for Retail’s Big Show in NYC
Become an NRF member and join the world’s largest retail trade association
Learn about retail advocacy at nrf.com/advocacy
Find more episodes at retailgetsreal.com
