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Inside the National Retail Federation are numerous subject matter experts who have emerged as trusted authorities across key areas such as consumer behavior, technology innovation, supply chain, workforce trends and policy. Their forward-thinking perspectives often help retailers anticipate change and seize opportunities across the competitive landscape.
We asked a handful of our experts to draw on their industry experience, and real-world expertise as they shared their perspectives on the question: What key issue, trend or opportunity are you watching most closely in 2026 and why?
Vice president, retail technology and cybersecurity
Executive director, Center for Digital Risk & Innovation
I will be closely following how agentic AI continues to transform all aspects of retail, including supply chains, warehouse operations, marketing and customer engagement. Agentic AI also creates new risks that retailers need to understand and manage, especially as agents start to proliferate through a company and interact with each other — companies will need to develop strong governance to address these challenges.
Vice president, corporate social responsibility and sustainability
Executive director, Center for Retail Sustainability
Circular retail solutions will expand in 2026, driven by consumer demand, economic constraints and regulatory requirements. Circularity aims to keep products and materials in use for as long as possible before disposal. It includes practices like collecting, sorting, reselling, repairing, refurbishing and recycling products and materials multiple times to minimize landfill waste.
These practices also create new ways for retailers to reduce the costs of product returns while creating new revenue opportunities. Ahead of the December holidays, U.S. consumers reported a growing preference for buying secondhand gifts, with more than two-thirds reporting they would gladly receive them. Consumers cite both financial and environmental benefits for buying gently used products for themselves or others.
Retailers are reducing their return costs and attracting new consumers with lower prices on slightly used products while complying with Extended Producer Responsibility laws. These laws impose fees on products that are historically difficult to recycle, encouraging more circular practices.
Vice president, industry and consumer insights
In 2026, I am paying most attention to looking at the “why” behind consumer spending. We’ve seen over and over again since the pandemic that consumer confidence isn’t necessarily tied to their levels of spending. There are other factors like love of family, community and seeking out moments of joy that determine how they interact with retail. As we potentially face even more economic pressures in 2026, decoding these motivations will be key to connecting with shoppers.
The other trend I’m watching is how discovery is being impacted with the growth of AI. Whether they intend to or not, shoppers are interacting with AI in new ways — through online search or review summaries — and it is changing how they find trends, compare prices and come to decisions.
Senior vice president, content
I will be closely following the responsible and transformative uses of AI within retail and the metrics used to do so. I believe it will transform the way we do business and the way shoppers shop. This could lead to new KPIs, more accurate predictions and faster decision cycles. Retailers adopting it across the enterprise are outperforming on speed, efficiency, labor productivity and personalization.
Vice president, government relations
and workforce development
The future of workforce issues in the retail industry is being shaped by advances in automation, demographics changes and shifting governmental regulations. As retailers adopt AI and robotics to streamline operations, they will be changing the nature of numerous jobs. Accordingly, the industry will invest in our employees to help them succeed in this new reality.
Retailers will continue to offer individualized, generous employment packages to attract a workforce expecting increased flexibility and compensation. At the same time, a growing concern continues to be the elimination of workable legal immigration pathways. Retail has long relied on foreign-born labor for essential roles at all skill levels, and regulatory uncertainty around work authorization could disrupt staffing pipelines. Regardless of economic trends, retailers will continue evolving to maintain their dynamic, effective, and customer-focused workforce.
Vice president, supply chain and customs policy
The biggest issue for 2026 will be the ongoing impact of uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and tariffs, and the impact that will continue to have on the supply chain. We will likely have a decision by the Supreme Court by early 2026 on the legality of the tariffs that have been imposed by the administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While many believe that the court will find the tariffs to be illegal, there will be a lot of questions regarding the remedy and potential for tariff refunds and what that process will look like.
In addition, the administration may pivot to other tariff authorities to try to keep tariffs in place. This will certainly have an impact on how retailers are planning their supply chains in order to serve their customers.
Vice president, asset protection and retail operations
The top issue I’m watching in 2026 is the expanding threat of retail theft and fraud, and the dual-side use of artificial intelligence by both criminal groups and retailers in this area.
Organized retail crime now impacts the entire retail ecosystem — stores, supply chain and the online and digital environments. ORC groups are leveraging advanced tactics, including generative AI, to automate and scale digital frauds and coordinate and conduct physical thefts across stores and the supply chain. This creates a complex, cross-channel risk landscape that overwhelms traditional, reactive loss prevention methods and law enforcement efforts.
Retailers need to invest in AI-driven preventative measures, while integrating physical and digital commerce environments for full-scale data connectivity. Law enforcement requires federal coordination to counter national and transnational ORC groups, with the passage of the Combating Organized Retail Crime Bill necessary to counter this escalating issue and an ever-evolving retail criminal.
Chief economist and executive director, research
Not surprisingly, I’m watching the consumer closely for signs of stress. Although we expect the consumer to step up and shop during the holidays, the outlook for 2026 is a lot more variable. This is particularly the case for lower-income households, who look to be more constrained than they were a few years ago.
One of the key areas to watch will be hiring. 2025 has been a very weak year for both hiring and job growth, particularly in the retail industry. If business continue to pull back on their investment in personnel, it could become a challenging year.
Right now, unemployment remains low and wage growth still exceeds inflation, and retail has benefitted from a consumer who has been willing to spend through their low sentiment. Should that dynamic change, we could see a softer year in terms of GDP growth and consumer spending.
Vice president, government relations, food and energy policy
Food affordability is a critical watchpoint for 2026. Persistent cost pressures across the supply chain — labor, energy and transportation — continue to challenge retailers and consumers alike. Labor availability remains tight, driving wage increases, while energy costs fluctuate amid global uncertainty. On the agricultural side, historically small cattle herd sizes are pushing protein prices higher, and feed costs remain elevated.
These dynamics ripple through every stage of the food system, from farm to shelf, amplifying inflationary pressures. For retailers, balancing affordability with operational sustainability will be paramount. Policy discussions around workforce development, energy resilience and supply chain efficiency will play a critical role in shaping outcomes. Ensuring consumers have access to affordable, high-quality food is not just an economic imperative — it’s a societal one.
